For more than a century, the United States has occupied a unique position within the global economy. It hosts the world’s deepest capital markets, many of its most innovative companies and a financial ecosystem that continues to attract capital from across the globe.
MSCI USA / MSCI Global
Source: US Stocks vs The World, Longtermtrends.com, 6 Jul 2026, data from MSCI
Despite repeated predictions of decline, the United States remains the dominant force in global investing. As shown above, since the financial crisis of 2008, the US market has outperformed the rest of the world
Yet investors face an important question: Can US markets continue delivering exceptional performance, or have expectations become too optimistic?
There are compelling arguments on both sides.
On one hand, America’s strengths remain substantial. The country continues to lead in:
- Technology innovation
- Artificial intelligence
- Biotechnology
- Venture capital
- Capital formation
Its universities, entrepreneurial culture and capital markets infrastructure remain difficult to replicate. Many of the world’s most influential companies continue to emerge from the United States.
On the other hand, success creates its own challenges.
Valuations across parts of the US market have risen significantly. Market concentration has increased. A relatively small number of companies now account for a substantial proportion of index performance.
History suggests that even exceptional businesses can produce disappointing investment returns when purchased at excessive valuations.
Key Takeaways
For family offices, this creates a nuanced challenge.
The current CAPE ratio for the US markets is more than double the historical mean. If history is of any indication, this implies that in the event of a mean reversion, investors can expect either mediocre returns in the coming years, or staggering losses in the near future.
The United States remains too important to ignore. However, investors must balance confidence in America’s long-term strengths with discipline regarding valuations, diversification and future return expectations.
As such, family offices portfolios need to be appropriately structured to remain robust in the different scenarios where US leadership may or may not continue, and where opportunities elsewhere may also become increasingly important.
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